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Date: 31 Aug 1999
Time: 23:12:38
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Malaysia's Mahathir on firm ground a year after Anwar's ouster

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 31 (AFP) - Almost one year after sacking his heir apparent and sparking Malaysia's biggest anti-government protests in decades, both supporters and opponents say Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's position in his ruling party is strong.

What is less clear, opponents say, is how much support Mahathir's moves against Anwar Ibrahim cost him among the Malay majority in the run-up to a general election.

The 74-year-old leader Tuesday watched a national day parade alongside King Salahuddin. And supporters from his United Malays National Organisation, which heads the ruling National Front coalition, described his position in the party as "very strong."

Ibrahim Ali, deputy minister in the prime minister's department, told AFP Mahathir had consolidated his power following the Anwar issue.

"The prime minister is very strong. UMNO is ready to face the election," he said. Malaysia must hold an election by next June but Mahathir is widely expected to call a snap poll as the economy recovers from recession.

Ibrahim said there had been a change of mood among young people who had previously criticised Mahathir for Anwar's removal.

"The economic recovery, coupled with their realisation that Anwar's allegations (of corruption and croynism) are untrue, is clearing all the confusion," he said.

Ibrahim said he was pleasantly suprised to see so many young people at the national day celebration.

Mahathir sacked Anwar, 52, as deputy premier and finance minister on September 2. A defiant Anwar then launched a reform movement calling for the premier's ousting,

But after a demonstration on September 20 outside the National Mosque which attracted tens of thousands of people, Anwar was arrested under the draconian Internal Security Act which allows detention without trial.

In April he was jailed for six years for abuse of power and is now on trial on a new charge of sodomy.

For several weeks street demonstrations calling for his release and Mahathir's resignation were common but tough action by police put an end to them.

"Mahathir's position within the party is unchallenged," agreed Jomo Sundram, a lecturer at University Malaya.

"I don't think he will quit. Don't count on him to retire. He is indispensable in his own eyes. He is in for the long haul.

"But within the country, Mahathir has lost legitimacy from Malays in particular and increasingly from the Chinese and Indians."

Malays make up slightly more than half the 22 million population.

"How legitimate is Mahathir's government? -- It is pretty bad," said Jomo.

Syed Husin Ali, chairman of the small opposition Malaysia People's Party, said the memory of Anwar's treatment "is still strong."

"The sense of injustice and anger is still deep among the Malays," he said.

Syed Husin said Malays blame Mahathir for economic and political uncertainties during the last year. One September 1 Mahathir imposed controversial currency controls and pegged the value of the ringgit -- a move which helped spark a final breach with Anwar, seen as more sympathetic to traditional economic nostrums.

Mahathir may be firm in his political position but he has not drowned all that anger, said Syed Husin.

"There is no clear show of support for Mahathir. Malaysians really don't express their feelings. It is difficult to gauge their deep sense of resentment. Let's wait for the elections," he said.

Syed Husin said fewer people displayed the national flag at this year's celebrations. Another witness said fewer cars flew the flag this year compared to last, even though the country was deep in economic crisis last year.

"No one in the party (UMNO) will dare challenge Mahathir at this moment," a Western diplomat said.

"But internationally Mahathir has become unpopular. I don't think any Western head will make a bilateral visit to Malaysia.

"While Anwar's political position over the last one year has weakened (since he is in jail), Mahathir has become a drag on his own party," the diplomat added.

"The proof of the pudding will be the election. The outcome of the election will determine when Mahathir will step down."


Last changed: August 31, 1999