[ Laman Ehwal Semasa ReformIS ]
Date: 01 Sep 1999
Time: 04:39:09
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Courting the Swing Vote Indians now have more political pull
By SANTHA OORJITHAM Kuala Lumpur
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had good reason to be pleased with his recent three-day official visit to China. He came home with a Chinese promise to allow Malaysia another consulate in Shanghai. He got a proposed "code of conduct" for dealing with issues in the South China Sea, where the two countries have conflicting claims. Not to be overlooked: He got his picture on the front pages of the newspapers shaking hands with China's top leaders.
None of this, except possibly the newspaper pictures, made much impression on Malaysian journalists who met with the PM in Beijing on Aug. 20. They peppered him with questions about whether the trip was designed mainly to win votes from ethnic Chinese Malaysians in the general elections, which many believe are just around the corner. The premier denied any connection. "This visit was planned a long time ago to coincide with the 25th anniversary of Malaysia-China relations."
The questions, of course, underscored the importance of the minority vote in the upcoming polls, which must by law be held by August next year. Many analysts, however, are betting that the PM will call them before the Oct. 12 budget session in Parliament. With an anticipated split in the Malay vote over the controversial ouster last year of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, minority votes are being courted as never before. Among the most crucial voters are the ethnic Indians.
Indians make up only about 7% of Malaysia's population, but they could be a critical "swing vote" in many constituencies. Indians constitute at least 10% of the voters in about 50 of Malaysia's 192 federal parliamentary seats. The highest concentrations are in the states of Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Perlis and Kuala Lumpur. The same ratios can be found in 130 of the 498 state assembly seats. (States held by the coalition normally hold elections simultaneously with Parliament.)
In 1995 the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition crushed the opposition, winning about five-sixths of the parliamentary seats. Nobody expects that it will do as well in the coming election. An unknown but potentially large number of Malay and possibly Chinese supporters may bolt to the new National Justice Party (Keadilan in Malay), headed by Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. Other opposition parties have been reinvigorated by what many consider the premier's heavy-handed attack on his former deputy.
In past elections, the Indians have largely voted down the line for the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), which, along with the Malaysian Chinese Association and United Malays National Organization, are the main components of the Barisan. The MIC holds seven seats in Parliament. Its veteran leader Samy Vellu, sits in the cabinet as minister of works. The party also has two deputy ministers and two parliamentary secretaries.
But while it is well represented in the government, many now question whether the party has really delivered the goods in practical terms, and they are wondering how they can use their newfound political leverage to win better opportunities for the Indian community. "Indians have bargaining power at this time," says K. Arumugam, a spokesman for the nine-month-old Group of Concerned Citizens, which has produced 51 "demands" for a better "social contract."
On July 11 the group held a meeting with the opposition parties and asked them to endorse the demands, which they gladly did. The Barisan did not attend or reply to the demands. "We weren't invited," claims Samy Vellu. "But even if we were invited, we would not have gone. A group cannot decide who should vote for whom. It is the fundamental right of the individual voter." He goes on to suggest that the group did not speak for the Malaysian Indian community.
Foremost among the demands is a minimum monthly wage for plantation workers, who are still paid on a daily rate. Plantation wages have not nearly kept pace with inflation, says Arumugam. Samy Vellu responds that the matter is under study. "I would not be surprised if the monthly wage were attended to before the elections," says M. Kulasegaran of the Democratic Action Party, the main opposition party in Parliament.
Another touchstone issue is Tamil-language primary schools. Among the demands is that they be given full government support and equal status to national Malay-language schools. Enrollment has been falling, and graduates, it is said, are not getting enough grounding in Malay and English to compete after primary school. Samy Vellu says he has fought "tooth and nail" to get schools rebuilt and renovated.
Both the Barisan and opposition parties are actively courting Indian voters. The MIC is collecting reports from its division chiefs on the hot local issues and tooting its own horn instead of just loyally backing the coalition. "Our new election strategy is this: We're going to present what the MIC has done for them in the last 10 years," says the veteran leader. He mentions education, student loans, taking care of squatters.
Keadilan is also fighting hard for the Indian vote. The party has planned a full schedule of rallies targeting the Indian community over the next several months. On Aug. 28 it is scheduled to hold a fund-raiser among Indian professionals. The opposition party may try to field Indian candidates in all seven of the seats currently held by the MIC, which necessarily means even in those seats with a Malay majority.
But whatever the election results, the Group of Concerned Citizens is hopeful about the Indian community's political future. The July meeting "managed to bring a lot of people together," says Arumugam. "We have an idea for long-term work, to see how our political demands can be achieved through discussion, pressure and meetings. It's not going to happen overnight, just because we came up with demands. Over time we'll see whether we can regain what we've lost."